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26. Natural Theory / C. Causation / 9. General Causation / c. Counterfactual causation

[causes explained in terms of alternative events]

37 ideas
Cause is where if the first object had not been, the second had not existed [Hume]
     Full Idea: We may define a cause to be where .....if the first object had not been, the second never had existed.
     From: David Hume (Enquiry Conc Human Understanding [1748], 7.2.60)
     A reaction: This is Hume's second definition, cited by Lewis as the ancestor of his counterfactual theory. It feels all wrong to me. 'If there had been no window, there would have been no window-breakage'?
Causal counterfactuals are just clumsy linguistic attempts to indicate dispositions [Martin,CB]
     Full Idea: 'Causal' counterfactuals have a place, of course, but only as clumsy and inexact linguistic gestures to dispositions, and they should be kept in that place.
     From: C.B. Martin (The Mind in Nature [2008], 02.6)
     A reaction: Counterfactuals only seem to give a regularity account of causation, by correlating an effect with a minimal context which will give rise to it. Surely dispositions run deeper than that?
The full counterfactual story asserts a series of events, because counterfactuals are not transitive [Bennett]
     Full Idea: The refinement of a simple counterfactual analysis is to say that cause and effect depend on a series of events. This must be asserted because counterfactual conditionals are well known not to be transitive.
     From: Jonathan Bennett (Event Causation: counterfactual analysis [1987])
     A reaction: This fills out the theory, but offers another target for critics. If the glue that binds the series is not in the counterfactuals, is it just in the mind of the speaker? How do you decide what's in the series? Cf. deciding offside in football (soccer!).
A counterfactual about an event implies something about the event's essence [Bennett]
     Full Idea: Any counterfactual about a particular event implies or presupposes something about the event's essence.
     From: Jonathan Bennett (Event Causation: counterfactual analysis [1987], p.219)
     A reaction: This is where the counterfactual theory suddenly becomes more interesting, instead of just being a rather bare account of the logical structure of causation. (Bennett offers some discussion of possible essential implications).
Many counterfactuals have nothing to do with causation [Kim, by Tooley]
     Full Idea: Kim has pointed out that there are a number of counterfactuals that have nothing to do with causation. If John marries Mary, then if John had not existed he would not have married Mary, but that is not the cause of their union.
     From: report of Jaegwon Kim (Causes and Counterfactuals [1973], 5.2) by Michael Tooley - Causation and Supervenience
     A reaction: One might not think that this mattered, but it leaves the problem of distinguishing between the causal counterfactuals and the rest (and you mustn't mention causation when you are doing it!).
Counterfactuals can express four other relations between events, apart from causation [Kim]
     Full Idea: Counterfactuals can express 'analytical' dependency, or the fact that one event is part of another, or an action done by doing another, or (most interestingly) an event can determine another without causally determining it.
     From: Jaegwon Kim (Causes and Counterfactuals [1973], p.205)
     A reaction: [Kim gives example of each case] Counterfactuals can even express a relation that involves no dependency. Or they might just involve redescription, as in 'If Scott were still alive, then the author of "Waverley" would be too'.
Causation is not the only dependency relation expressed by counterfactuals [Kim]
     Full Idea: The sort of dependency expressed by counterfactual relations is considerably broader than strictly causal dependency, and causal dependency is only one among the heterogeneous group of dependency relationships counterfactuals can express.
     From: Jaegwon Kim (Causes and Counterfactuals [1973], p.205)
     A reaction: In 'If pigs could fly, one and one still wouldn't make three' there isn't even a dependency. Kim has opened up lines of criticism which make the counterfactual analysis of causation look very implausible to me.
Causal dependence is counterfactual dependence between events [Lewis]
     Full Idea: I take causal dependence to be counterfactual dependence, of a suitably back-tracking sort, between distinct events.
     From: David Lewis (Causal Explanation [1986], I)
     A reaction: He quotes Hume in support. 'Counterfactual dependence' strikes me as too vague, or merely descriptive, for the job of explanation. 'If...then' is a logical relationship; what is it in nature that justifies the dependency?
Lewis has basic causation, counterfactuals, and a general ancestral (thus handling pre-emption) [Lewis, by Bird]
     Full Idea: Lewis's basic account has a basic causal relation, counterfactual dependence, and the general causal relation is the ancestral of this basic one. ...This is motivated by counterfactual dependence failing to be general because of the pre-emption problem.
     From: report of David Lewis (Causation [1973]) by Alexander Bird - Causation and the Manifestation of Powers p.161
     A reaction: It is so nice when you struggle for ages with a topic, and then some clever person summarises it clearly for you.
Counterfactual causation implies all laws are causal, which they aren't [Tooley on Lewis]
     Full Idea: Some counterfactuals are based on non-causal laws, such as Newton's Third Law of Motion. 'If no force one way, then no force the other'. Lewis's counterfactual analysis implies that one force causes the other, which is not the case.
     From: comment on David Lewis (Causation [1973]) by Michael Tooley - Causation and Supervenience 5.2
     A reaction: So what exactly does 'cause' my punt to move forwards? Basing causal laws on counterfactual claims looks to me like putting the cart before the horse.
The counterfactual view says causes are necessary (rather than sufficient) for their effects [Lewis, by Bird]
     Full Idea: The Humean idea, developed by Lewis, is that rather than being sufficient for their effects, causes are (counterfactual) necessary for their effects.
     From: report of David Lewis (Causation [1973]) by Alexander Bird - Causation and the Manifestation of Powers p.162
My counterfactual analysis applies to particular cases, not generalisations [Lewis]
     Full Idea: My (counterfactual) analysis is meant to apply to causation in particular cases; it is not an analysis of causal generalizations. Those presumably quantify over particulars, but it is hard to match natural language to the quantifiers.
     From: David Lewis (Causation [1973], p.195)
     A reaction: What authority could you have for asserting a counterfactual claim, if you only had one observation? Isn't the counterfactual claim the hallmark of a generalisation? For one case, 'if not-c, then not-e' is just a speculation.
One event causes another iff there is a causal chain from first to second [Lewis]
     Full Idea: One event is the cause of another iff there exists a causal chain leading from the first to the second.
     From: David Lewis (Causation [1973], p.200)
     A reaction: It will be necessary to both explain and identify a 'chain'. Some chains are extremely tenuous (Alexander could stop a barrel of beer). Go back a hundred years, and the cause of any present event is everything back then.
Causation is when at the closest world without the cause, there is no effect either [Lewis]
     Full Idea: If it is the case at world W that if event C had not occurred, E would not have occurred either, then the counterfactual means that at the closest worlds to W at which C does not occur, E does not occur either.
     From: David Lewis (On the Plurality of Worlds [1986], 1.6)
     A reaction: This is a very Humean account, though updated, which sees nothing more to causation than transworld regularities. To me that is just describing the evidence for causation, not giving an account of it (even if the latter is impossible).
Counterfactuals 'backtrack' if a different present implies a different past [Lewis]
     Full Idea: A counterfactual can be said to 'backtrack' if it can be said that if the present were different a different past would have led up to it (rather than if the present were different, the same past would have had a different outcome).
     From: David Lewis (New work for a theory of universals [1983], 'Dup,Sup,Div')
     A reaction: A nice clear definition of a concept which is important in Lewis's analysis of causation. In the current context he is concerned with elucidation of determinism and materialism. I would say (intuitively) that all counterfactuals backtrack.
Causal counterfactuals must avoid backtracking, to avoid epiphenomena and preemption [Lewis]
     Full Idea: My counterfactual analysis of causation needs counterfactuals that avoid backtracking; else the analysis faces fatal counterexamples involving epiphenomenal side-effects or cases of causal preemption.
     From: David Lewis (New work for a theory of universals [1983], 'Laws and C')
     A reaction: The concept of true epiphenomena (absolutely no causal powers) strikes me as bogus.
Analyse counterfactuals using causation, not the other way around [Horwich]
     Full Idea: In my view, counterfactual conditionals are analysed in terms of causation.
     From: Paul Horwich (Lewis's Programme [1987], p.208)
     A reaction: This immediately sounds more plausible to me. Counterfactual claims are rather human, whereas causation (if we accept it) seems a feature of nature. The key question is whether some sort of 'dependency' is a feature of counterfactuals.
Causal dependence explains counterfactual dependence, not vice versa [Molnar]
     Full Idea: The counterfactual analysis is open to the Euthyphro objection: it is causal dependence that explains any counterfactual dependence rather than vice versa.
     From: George Molnar (Powers [1998], 12.1)
     A reaction: I take views like the counterfactual analysis of causation to arise from empiricists who are bizarrely reluctant to adopt plausible best explainations (such as powers and essences).
Counterfactual causation makes causes necessary but not sufficient [Lipton]
     Full Idea: The counterfactual conception of causation makes causes necessary but not sufficient conditions for their effects.
     From: Peter Lipton (Inference to the Best Explanation (2nd) [2004], 08 'From cause')
     A reaction: Interesting. Then causes would be necessary, but would not necessitate. So what makes a cause sufficient?
Causation is nothing more than the counterfactuals it grounds? [Hawley]
     Full Idea: Counterfactual accounts of causation say that a causal connection is exhausted by the counterfactuals it appears to ground.
     From: Katherine Hawley (How Things Persist [2001], 3.5)
     A reaction: I am bewildered as to how this became a respectable view in philosophy. I quite understand that this might exhaust the 'logic' of causal relations. Presumably you can have counterfactuals in mathematics which are not causal?
We can give up the counterfactual account if we take causal language at face value [Mumford]
     Full Idea: If we take causal language at face value and give up reducing causal concepts to non-causal, non-modal concepts, we can give up the counterfactual dependence account.
     From: Stephen Mumford (Laws in Nature [2004], 10.5)
Counterfactual claims about causation imply that it is more than just regular succession [Psillos]
     Full Idea: If counterfactual claims can be made about causation, this suggests that there is more to it than mere regular succession.
     From: Stathis Psillos (Causation and Explanation [2002], §2.2)
     A reaction: Interesting. Even Hume makes counterfactual claims in his first definition of cause, and all claims of causation seem to go beyond the immediate evidence.
We don't pick a similar world from many - we construct one possibility from the description [Maudlin]
     Full Idea: It seems unlikely the psychological process could mirror Lewis's semantics: people don't imagine a multiplicity of worlds and the pick out the most similar. Rather we construct representations of possible worlds from counterfactual descriptions.
     From: Tim Maudlin (The Metaphysics within Physics [2007], 1.5)
     A reaction: I approve of fitting such theories into a psychology, but this may be unfair to Lewis, who aims for a logical model, not an account of how we actually approach the problem.
Evaluating counterfactuals involves context and interests [Maudlin]
     Full Idea: The evaluation of counterfactual claims is widely recognised as being influenced by context and interest.
     From: Tim Maudlin (The Metaphysics within Physics [2007], 1.5)
     A reaction: Such evaluation certainly seems to involve imagination, and so the pragmatics can creep in there. I don't quite see why it should be deeply contextual.
If we know the cause of an event, we seem to assent to the counterfactual [Maudlin]
     Full Idea: When we think we know the cause of an event, we typically assent to the corresponding Hume counterfactual.
     From: Tim Maudlin (The Metaphysics within Physics [2007], 5)
     A reaction: This is the correct grounding of the counterfactual approach - not that we think counterfactuals are causation, but that knowledge of causation will map neatly onto a network of counterfactuals, thus providing a logic for the whole process.
The counterfactual is ruined if some other cause steps in when the antecedent fails [Maudlin]
     Full Idea: A counterexample to the counterfactual approach is that perhaps the effect would have occurred despite the absence of the cause since another cause would have stepped in to bring it about.
     From: Tim Maudlin (The Metaphysics within Physics [2007], 5)
     A reaction: …Hence you cannot say 'if C had not occurred, E would definitely not have occurred'. You have to add 'ceteris paribus', which ruins the neatness of the theory.
If the effect hadn't occurred the cause wouldn't have happened, so counterfactuals are two-way [Maudlin]
     Full Idea: If Kennedy had still been President in Dec 1963, he would not have been assassinated in Nov 1963, so the counterfactual goes both ways (where the cause seems to only go one way).
     From: Tim Maudlin (The Metaphysics within Physics [2007], 5)
     A reaction: Maudlin says a lot of fine-tuning has sort of addressed these problems, but that counterfactual causation is basically wrong-headed anyway, and I incline to agree, though one must understand what the theory is (and is not) trying to do.
The counterfactual approach makes no distinction between cause and pre-condition [Bird]
     Full Idea: The counterfactual approach makes no distinction between cause and condition, ...but when the smoke sets off the fire alarm, the smoke is the cause, whereas the presence of the alarm is just the condition.
     From: Alexander Bird (Causation and the Manifestation of Powers [2010], p.162)
     A reaction: Bird defends the idea that causes are what stimulate dispositions to act.
Is a cause because of counterfactual dependence, or is the dependence because there is a cause? [Mumford/Anjum]
     Full Idea: There is an obvious Euthyphro question to be asked: is it true that c caused e because e counterfactually depended on c; or did e counterfactually depend on c precisely because c caused e?
     From: S.Mumford/R.Lill Anjum (Getting Causes from Powers [2011], 6.8)
     A reaction: The idea that causes could depend on a logical relationship of counterfactual dependence strikes me as so bizarre that only a philosopher could think of it.
Occasionally a cause makes no difference (pre-emption, perhaps) so the counterfactual is false [Mumford/Anjum]
     Full Idea: Causes can - perhaps they usually do - make a difference but not always. In cases where they don't (such as overdetermination, or late pre-emption), the corresponding counterfactual will be false.
     From: S.Mumford/R.Lill Anjum (Getting Causes from Powers [2011], 6.8)
     A reaction: The whole idea that we might be able to give a full account of causation in terms of some sort of logical relationship between possible worlds etc. appals me. We need to label something as 'Scientific Logicism', so that we can attack it.
Cases of preventing a prevention may give counterfactual dependence without causation [Mumford/Anjum]
     Full Idea: We could argue that there can be counterfactual dependence between events without causation, namely, cases of double prevention (an event preventing what would have prevented the second).
     From: S.Mumford/R.Lill Anjum (Getting Causes from Powers [2011], 6.8)
     A reaction: Since the whole idea of causation as counterfactual dependence strikes me as utterly counterintuitive, I don't really need these arguments, but it is nice to know that they can be found. Lewis devoted reams of discussion to such problems.
Why does an effect require a prior event if the prior event isn't a cause? [Bardon]
     Full Idea: To say that a reaction requires the earlier presence of an action just raises anew the question of why it is 'required' if it isn't bring about the reaction.
     From: Adrian Bardon (Brief History of the Philosophy of Time [2013], 4 'Pervasive')
     A reaction: This is another example of my demand that empiricists don't just describe and report conjunctions and patterns, but make some effort to explain them.
The counterfactual theory of causation handles the problem no matter what causes actually are [Baron/Miller]
     Full Idea: The chief advantage of the counterfactual theory of causation is that it is flexible enough to handle causation no matter what in the world underlies the causal facts in question.
     From: Baron,S/Miller,K (Intro to the Philosophy of Time [2019], 6.3)
     A reaction: It has this advantage because it makes no attempt to explain causation, but merely gives an accurate map of the truth and falsity of causal statements. It describes how we think about causation.
Counterfactual theories struggle with pre-emption by a causal back-up system [Baron/Miller]
     Full Idea: Counterfactual theories of causation have difficulty accommodating pre-emption, which involves the existence of causal back-up systems that undermine counterfactual dependence.
     From: Baron,S/Miller,K (Intro to the Philosophy of Time [2019], 6.5)
     A reaction: E.g. If your stone hadn't broken the window first, my stone would have broken it instead. So in the nearest world the withholding of your stone doesn't save the window.
Counterfactuals don't explain causation, but causation can explain counterfactuals [Ingthorsson]
     Full Idea: I cannot identify any prima facie reason to think that causation can be explained in counterfactual terms, but plenty to think that causation can explain counterfactuals.
     From: R.D. Ingthorsson (A Powerful Particulars View of Causation [2021], 9.1)
     A reaction: Love it. Treating causation as counterfactual dependency is hopelessly superficial. What is the reality that is involved? He cites the second law of motion.
People only accept the counterfactual when they know the underlying cause [Ingthorsson]
     Full Idea: I doubt that anyone will accept any counterfactual as true unless they believe they know the underlying causality.
     From: R.D. Ingthorsson (A Powerful Particulars View of Causation [2021], 9.3)
     A reaction: Correct. Almost any example will support it. Compare coincidences and true causes.
Counterfactual theories are false in possible worlds where causation is actual [Ingthorsson]
     Full Idea: if there are worlds where there are causal powers and/or lawful connections, then they are worlds in which the counterfactual theory of causation is false, because there causes produce the effects, regardless of any possible world.
     From: R.D. Ingthorsson (A Powerful Particulars View of Causation [2021], 9.6)
     A reaction: A nice modern instance of turning the tables. Come to think of it, possible worlds theories are just asking for that. Are there possible worlds in which there are no other possible worlds? Or the possible worlds are inaccessible?