Single Idea 6368

[catalogued under 5. Theory of Logic / L. Paradox / 4. Paradoxes in Logic / e. The Lottery paradox]

Full Idea

The Lottery Paradox says you should rationally conclude that your ticket will not win the lottery, and then apply the same reasoning to all the other tickets, and conclude that no ticket will win the lottery.

Gist of Idea

If my ticket won't win the lottery (and it won't), no other tickets will either


report of Henry E. Kyburg Jr (Probability and Logic of Rational Belief [1961]) by J Pollock / J Cruz - Contemporary theories of Knowledge (2nd) 7.2.8

Book Reference

Pollock,J.L./Cruz,J: 'Contemporary Theories of Knowledge (2nd)' [Rowman and Littlefield 1999], p.230

A Reaction

(Very compressed by me). I doubt whether this is a very deep paradox; the conclusion that I will not win is a rational assessment of likelihood, but it is not the result of strict logic.

Related Idea

Idea 19503 An improbable lottery win can occur in a nearby possible world [Pritchard,D]