more from Peter Lipton

Single Idea 16801

[catalogued under 14. Science / C. Induction / 6. Bayes's Theorem]

Full Idea

In English, Bayes's Theorem says that there is a high confirmation when your hypothesis entails an unlikely prediction that turns out to be correct - a very plausible claim.

Gist of Idea

A hypothesis is confirmed if an unlikely prediction comes true


Peter Lipton (Inference to the Best Explanation (2nd) [2004], 01 'Descr')

Book Reference

Lipton,Peter: 'Inference to the Best Explanation (2nd ed)' [Routledge 2004], p.17

A Reaction

Presumably the simple point is that a likely prediction could have been caused by many things, but an unlikely prediction will probably only be caused by that thing.